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‘Explosion’ of ampox virus could occur in UK within two weeks, experts fear, as risk of double outbreak grows
An infectious disease expert has said there could be an ‘explosion’ of ampox in the United Kingdom within two weeks, fearing the Clade 1B strain – the deadliest so far and which has killed more than 500 people in DR Congo – may have already reached the country. According to Dr Paul Hunter, since the first case outside Africa was detected in Sweden last week, “it is likely that we have already had infection in the UK.” Read on to find out more.
The UK is already seeing a rise in cases of another variant, Clade 2, which sparked the last global health emergency in 2022
Infectious disease experts have warned that the United Kingdom will see an outbreak of a new, more lethal and highly deadly subtype of the Mpox virus within two weeks. In an interview with The Sun, Dr Paul Hunter, professor of medicine at the University of East Anglia, said he was “confident” that cases would emerge from the UK within a fortnight after the disease develops and people with symptoms seek medical treatment.
The mutant type of ampox – known as clade 1b – is spreading rapidly from the Democratic Republic of Congo to several neighbouring countries in Africa, prompting the World Health Organisation to declare it a public health emergency.
In addition, the first case to be detected outside the continent was found in Sweden last week, prompting the NHS to issue a high alert across the country. “It is likely that the infection has already spread in the UK,” Dr Paul said.
Paul says he fears the worst because the first visible signs of the disease – lesions – don’t appear for at least 10-12 days after infection, meaning most people don’t seek medical treatment until day 13. “If someone gets infected with clade 1b today we won’t know about it for at least two weeks – maybe three weeks,” he said.
And because of this delay in results, cases in the U.K. could rise over the next two weeks, Dr. Paul pointed out. “I would bet on it,” he said, “but I can’t say for sure.”
Clade 2 is already emerging in the UK
The UK is already seeing a rise in cases of another variant, clade 2 ampox – which triggered the last global health emergency in 2022. However, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, clade 2 is known to have mild symptoms and does not usually cause death.
According to experts, Clade 2 is usually spread through sexual contact and is mainly spread among men who have sex with men. In July, 43 confirmed or ‘highly likely’ cases of the Clade 2 Mpox variant were found in England, UK Health Security Data (UKHSA) revealed.
According to Dr Paul, the only way to distinguish between the two clades is to send virus samples to a laboratory for testing – which takes about a week. “So, there is a possibility that some of these cases may belong to clade 1B,” he said.
What is the double outbreak of AmPox?
Experts have warned that there is a potential risk of both clades surging at the same time, leading to a double outbreak of the ampoxvirus. “This can happen if the two clades affect different populations, if one clade affects female sex workers and the other affects men who sleep with men,” Dr Paul explained.
However, if they affect the same group, it is likely that one will cancel out the other. “It’s similar to when a new COVID-19 variant comes and all the other variants disappear because they can’t compete with it,” he said.
Britain is exercising caution
The UKHSA says it is fully alert to new developments and has advised anyone wishing to travel to the affected area to seek health advice from their doctors. Dr Mary Ramsay, director of public health programmes at the UKHSA, told The Sun: “Those travelling to areas affected by the ongoing outbreak should take sensible precautions to protect themselves from the risk of infection.”
“The risk to most travellers is currently low, and vaccination against ampox infection is not recommended for most people,” he said.
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