A new study published in The Lancet shows that if current trends continue, four out of five men and women in the United States will be overweight or obese by 2050. The research estimates that by then, approximately 213 million adults aged 25 and older, as well as more than 45 million children and young adults aged 5 to 24, will be struggling with excess weight.

Of more concern is the rate of obesityExpect to grow more quickly, as opposed to simply being overweight. By mid-century, two-thirds of adults, one-third of adolescents, and one-fifth of children in the United States are projected to be obese.

These statistics point to a crisis of chronic diseases across the country. Obesity is linked to many serious health conditions, according to lead author Emmanuella Gakidou, a professor at the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation (IHME) at the University of Washington.

“Overweight and obesity can trigger serious health conditions, including diabetes, heart attacks, strokes, cancer, mental health disorders, and even premature death,” Gakidou explained in a journal release. “The growing health system and economic costs will be equally widespread, with more than 260 million Americans by 2050, including more than half of children and adolescents, living with overweight or obesity.”

Researchers used 134 data sources, including national surveillance surveys, to predict future obesity trends. In 2021, nearly three-quarters of American adults were overweight or obese. Obesity rates have skyrocketed since 1990, doubling among both men (19 percent to 42 percent) and women (23 percent to 46 percent).

The South is expected to remain the most affected region, with the highest levels of obesity in the entire country. For example, two-thirds of men in West Virginia and Kentucky, as well as two-thirds of women in 12 states, are projected to be obese by 2050. Mississippi, West Virginia, Arkansas and Illinois are projected to have particularly high rates.

The study also highlights a troubling trend: Americans are becoming obese at younger ages. For example, two out of five women born in the 1960s were obese by age 45, while the same proportion of women born in the 1980s were obese by age 30.

Obesity rates among teens more than doubled between 1990 and 2021, rising from 9 percent to 23 percent among boys and from 10 percent to 29 percent among girls. By 2050, an additional 3.3 million children and adolescents, as well as 3.4 million young adults, are expected to be overweight or obese.

Obesity rates are estimated to be highest among young men in states such as Oklahoma, Mississippi and West Virginia, while at least half of young women in Mississippi, Arkansas, Oklahoma and Alabama are expected to live with obesity. However, California and Texas will have the highest numbers of obese young adults, with 1.53 million and 1.49 million, respectively.

While drugs like Wegovi and Zepbound offer hope for some people, they are far from a universal solution, the researchers stressed. Co-author Mary Ng, an affiliated associate professor at IHME, stressed that anti-obesity drugs alone cannot reverse the growing epidemic.

“Above all, reversing the American obesity epidemic will depend on government-backed programs,” Gakidou said. These programs should focus on increasing physical activity, promoting safe and walkable neighborhoods, ensuring access to healthy food for children, regulating the food industry, and adopting environmentally sustainable food systems.

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